Back in 2000, when technology stocks hit the wall, one of Gavekal’s first clients told us: “It’s OK. Bear markets serve an important purpose: they return capital to its rightful owners.” Behind this cynicism lies an inherent truth. Bear markets do tend to shake out “weak hands,” clean out retail… Read More
Modern welfare states need economic growth to keep their show on the road. The ever-rising costs of pensions, of health care and of maintaining crumbling infrastructure all necessitate rising tax revenues. And rising tax revenues typically depend on economic growth. In turn, economic growth is generated either by population expansion… Read More
For contrarian investors, which obviously includes yours truly, the most pressing investment question today might be whether Chinese stocks are at a multi-generational buy point. Cover stories such as the ones seen below, especially from The Economist, are nearly fail-safe long-term buy signals. However, it’s merely being factual to state… Read More
US inflation slowed in April, according to CPI data released Wednesday. Yet even though they had this softer inflation data in hand, Federal Reserve policymakers still pared back their rate cut expectations for the year. In the new dot plot published Wednesday, the median projection showed just one rate cut… Read More
Apple has long been celebrated as one of the most innovative companies in the world. Since its groundbreaking launch of the iPhone in 2007, the company has consistently delivered pioneering hardware and software solutions, keeping tech aficionados on the edge of their seats in anticipation of the next “big thing.”… Read More
The US housing market is humming along nicely, with both construction and sales doing well. New-build prices have stabilized and those of existing homes continue to rise. Such resilience in the face of a long monetary tightening cycle has surprised plenty of commentators, including myself, but it is clear that… Read More
Leveraged buyouts (LBOs) and private equity deals face challenges in today’s expensive borrowing environment. However, Permira grabbed headlines this week when the London-based Private Equity firm announced its intent to acquire website builder Squarespace. The deal, valued at $6.9 billion, is the second-largest leveraged buyout of 2024, underscoring a continued… Read More
Introduction All eyes were squarely focused on the Federal Reserve this week, as markets whiplashed between several unknowns. Would recent inflation and payroll data nudge the Fed towards a more hawkish stance? Would the Fed signal that it believes it’s losing its fight to bring inflation towards its target rate of 2%? Are rate cuts still on the table… Read More
The rise in US treasury yields this year initially caused the usual casualties: the yen, won, euro, and British pound. From exchange rates, it seems that the US interest rate wrecking ball is now wreaking destruction among richly-valued technology stocks. Recent trading sessions have seen a vicious rotation in equity… Read More
This week’s newsletter features a presentation by Evergreen’s Co-Chief Investment Officer, Jeff Dicks. He reflects on the first quarter of 2024 and reviews the investment committee’s market outlook in 27 charts. In addition to these insights, Jeff also discusses key themes to pay attention to for the remainder year. Read More
