“If you can get long-term returns of 5% from either stocks or bonds, you should consider yourself or your portfolio in the upper echelon of competitors.” – BOND FUND SUPERSTAR, BILL GROSS POINTS TO PONDER 1. Morgan Stanley’s former star strategist, Byron Wien, now vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory… Read More
Click to view as PDF. “In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity.” -Albert Einstein Peak Experience. With a business career rapidly approaching the 35-year mark, I’ve taken a number of work-related trips to some unusual, even exotic, locales. Last week, however, I traveled to what might have been my most unlikely business venue, one that probably strikes clients and readers as the ultimate boondoggle destination: Whistler, B.C. Given that skiing is a favorite pastime of mine, and one that I rarely get to indulge in because my wife likes it even less than having her credit card rejected at Christmastime, skepticism about the business purpose of this sojourn is understandable. And because I always strive to be as honest with my readers as possible, I will admit that there definitely was some skiing involved. However, even that activity gave me a chance to gain valuable information, which I will share with you shortly. In fact, “gave” is the key word or, more accurately, Gave. In this case, the pronunciation rhymes with “mauve” and I’m sure astute readers realize I’m referring to the Gave in GaveKal Research, whose incisive work I so frequently relay to all of you in these pages. Louis Gave, the firm’s founder, has a winter residence up at Whistler, giving him the perfect lifestyle counterpoint to hot, humid, and humming Hong Kong, which he and his young family usually call home. One of my main motivations for going up to Whistler at this hectic time of the year was the rare chance to meet with Louis’ father, Charles, who normally resides at the far removed longitudes of either Hong Kong or France. For those of you who regularly read John Mauldin’s wildly successful newsletter, you may recall that John refers to Charles as someone who, when he gets really revved up on a subject, comes across with the force and presence of God himself. Read More
Click to view as PDF. “Witnessing the Republicans and Democrats endlessly bicker over the US debt is analogous to watching two drunks argue over the bar bill on the Titanic.” -READER GARY CARLSON in a letter to the editor of the Idaho Statesman POINTS TO PONDER 1. While Wall Street economists appear increasingly convinced the US economy is picking up steam, leading indicators are not supportive of that view. For all OECD countries (the world’s wealthiest nations), the message is the same, with Europe likely already entering into yet another serious contraction. Read More
“GE is now finding it profitable to build manufacturing and service centers in the US rather than overseas, because it is more competitive to do so.” – General Electric CEO, Jeff Immelt 1. Oil prices north of $100 are estimated to be sucking $100 billion of purchasing power… Read More
All of us at Evergreen Capital Management want to start this EVA by expressing our deepest sympathy to the people of Japan. The news footage is heartbreaking and a vivid reminder of the frailty of life. While we watch hopefully and root for their speedy recovery, we also acknowledge the… Read More
“Who will buy treasuries when the Fed doesn’t? Yields may have to go higher, maybe even much higher to attract buying interest.” -Pimco’s BILL GROSS POINTS TO PONDER 1. Thanks to intense media attention on the fiscal woes of some municipalities, retail investors began withdrawing in droves from tax-free bond… Read More
“Like all bubbles, these exaggerated increases (in commodities and other higher risk assets) can rapidly reverse when interest rates return to normal levels.” -MARTIN FELDSTEIN, former chief economic adviser to Ronald Reagan, referring to the Fed’s QEII program POINTS TO PONDER 1. Continuing the pattern of conflicting economic releases, the… Read More
“There is a big difference between an inflation scare and an inflation cycle and most pundits are underestimating the degree of austerity that is on its way at all levels of government, which will outlast the commodity boomlet.” -DAVID ROSENBURG POINTS TO PONDER 1. With inflation fears running rampant once… Read More
“In China, of course, just like in most emerging markets, you’re dealing in a country where the rule of law and the independence of the courts are extremely questionable… That’s why emerging markets…deserve to trade at a discount compared to developed markets.” -LOUIS GAVE Being Evergreen Capital’s chief investment officer… Read More
“You can never say never, but I cannot imagine a convincing argument for further quantitative easing after this round, given what is developing now in the economy.” -Dallas Fed Chief RICHARD FISHER POINTS TO PONDER 1. The battle against inflation in emerging markets continues to escalate, largely driven by soaring… Read More
