General

Falling Fed deficits have neutered any serious efforts for fiscal reform. The trend is not our friend in this regard. Read More

“Similarly today, it is both painful and career risky to part with your increasingly beloved cash, particularly since cash has been so hard to raise in this market of unprecedented illiquidity. As this crisis climaxes, formerly reasonable people will start to predict the end of the world, armed with plenty… Read More

EM stocks have underperformed the S&P by 80% since 2011. Year-to-date this trend has begun to reverse course. Read More

The Yuan is up 13% over the last year, which is clearly affecting exports. This likely means more rate cuts ahead. Read More

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Two nays and a yea. There’s little doubt that the two most important developments in the financial markets over the last six months have been the stunning rise in the US dollar and the equally shocking collapse by oil prices. In this month’s edition of the Evergreen Exchange, we are taking a closer look at the former and debating whether the buck’s bolt might be coming to an end. We’re treating readers by incorporating GaveKal’s co-founder Anatole Kaletsky, one of Europe’s most influential financial commentators, in this debate. As you will soon see, Anatole is very much of the belief that the dollar’s sprint is nearing the finish line, at least versus the euro. In my section, I argue the case for why it may also be petering out against a number of other currencies as well, based on how expensive it is on a purchasing power parity basis. However, I do concede that a further overshoot is possible. Tyler, on the other hand, contends that there’s more upside for the greenback than just a final blow-off. That’s certainly a distinct possibility, considering how expensive the dollar got during its two previous upside explosions during the mid-1980s and the late-1990s. (However, notice that, per my charts, the bigger the spike, the sharper the decline—a pattern eerily similar to the stock market’s past behavior.) Read More

Two nays and a yea. There’s little doubt that the two most important developments in the financial markets over the last six months have been the stunning rise in the US dollar and the equally shocking collapse by oil prices. In this month’s edition of the Evergreen Exchange, we are taking a closer look at the former and debating whether the buck’s bolt might be coming to an end. We’re treating readers by incorporating GaveKal’s co-founder Anatole Kaletsky, one of Europe’s most influential financial commentators, in this debate. As you will soon see, Anatole is very much of the belief that the dollar’s sprint is nearing the finish line, at least versus the euro. In my section, I argue the case for why it may also be petering out against a number of other currencies as well, based on how expensive it is on a purchasing power parity basis. However, I do concede that a further overshoot is possible. Tyler, on the other hand, contends that there’s more upside for the greenback than just a final blow-off. That’s certainly a distinct possibility, considering how expensive the dollar got during its two previous upside explosions during the mid-1980s and the late-1990s. (However, notice that, per my charts, the bigger the spike, the sharper the decline—a pattern eerily similar to the stock market’s past behavior.) Read More

Japanese blue chips trade at steep discounts vs. their US comps. Also, many are working to improve profitability. Read More

This cycle unemployment and the population % not in workforce have diverged, the latter will hinder future growth. Read More

Lower gas prices have certainly stimulated driving, clearly indicating rising demand. Read More