General

Not-so-safe assumptions. One of those simple but clever old sayings goes, “You know what happens when you assume: You make an ass out of you and me.” Despite that admonition, we all continually make assumptions every day. Perhaps nowhere is this more evident than in the oft-intersecting worlds of investments and economics. For example, there are certain bed-rock assumptions about finance that are too obvious to question, such as lenders will always receive a positive rate of return on the funds they extend (at least from a safe borrower who doesn’t default.) In a healthy economy, this means an actual real yield (i.e., net of inflation). Read More

Not-so-safe assumptions. One of those simple but clever old sayings goes, “You know what happens when you assume: You make an ass out of you and me.” Despite that admonition, we all continually make assumptions every day. Perhaps nowhere is this more evident than in the oft-intersecting worlds of investments and economics. For example, there are certain bed-rock assumptions about finance that are too obvious to question, such as lenders will always receive a positive rate of return on the funds they extend (at least from a safe borrower who doesn’t default.) In a healthy economy, this means an actual real yield (i.e., net of inflation). Read More

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When I studied finance, I was taught that if I put hard earned money in the bank, I would received interest. Conversely, if I wanted to borrow money, there was a cost associated with doing so. Many investors are overlooking just how much impact central bank’s policy is having on… Read More

Click here to view this week’s Evergreen Exchange.

Retirees’ confidence in their financial future has nearly doubled since the recession, according to the Employee Benefits Research Institute. A sign of improvement is the decline (almost half) of workers postponing retirement (13% this year versus 25% in 2009); 37% of retirees say they are confident they will be able… Read More

To subscribe to Insights, email jliu@evergreengavekal.com; Note: all returns represent total return including dividends; YTD Market Style Returns are based on the Russell indices. Please see important disclosure below: DISCLOSURES: This material has been prepared or is distributed solely for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation or… Read More

With 10Y JGBs yielding just 0.30% it’s not surprising Japan surpassed China as largest foreign holder of USTs. Read More

We can't help it. Charles Gave inspires us so routinely that his musings are, once again, the highlight of this month’s Guest EVA. I had an immediate and visceral reaction to his April 10th published essay How Indexation Killed Growth. As you’ll see, he calls index investing stupid and compares it to Socialism—and that’s just the first paragraph! What bothers Charles also concerns me and my Evergreen colleagues. Passive investors have a high probability of achieving average performance and little risk of falling short. Read More

We can't help it. Charles Gave inspires us so routinely that his musings are, once again, the highlight of this month’s Guest EVA. I had an immediate and visceral reaction to his April 10th published essay How Indexation Killed Growth. As you’ll see, he calls index investing stupid and compares it to Socialism—and that’s just the first paragraph! What bothers Charles also concerns me and my Evergreen colleagues. Passive investors have a high probability of achieving average performance and little risk of falling short. Read More