The “I” word. The word “impeachment” has been thrown around several times in the history of American politics. The first sitting president to be formally impeached was Andrew Johnson, in 1868, for abuse of power. Over a century later, Bill Clinton was the second US president impeached for perjury and obstruction of justice. Both were acquitted in the Senate, but their names will be forever associated with that long, humiliating “I” word. Read More
Better to be lucky... One of this year’s “Unexpected Outcomes” from our January 20th EVA was that the long-comatose French stock market would be one of the world’s better performers in 2017. My rationale was that, at the time, Francois Fillon, a credible and reform-minded candidate, was leading the polls for president of France. Moreover, considering his flawed and/or relatively obscure opponents, his election looked highly probable. Read More
To Invest, or Not to Invest, that is the Question. The Wall Street Journal recently ran an article debating whether the Social Security trust fund should be allowed to invest in stocks. The piece juxtaposes two opposing views; one side arguing ‘Yes’ and the other ‘No’. Read More
Dimon Vision. After spending almost four decades in the financial industry, I have many fond memories (along with some of the not-so-fond variety). Among my best are the times when I was privileged to work with Jamie Dimon in the 1990s. These were my—and Jamie’s—Smith Barney years and they were exhilarating. Read More
Around the world in eighty days eighteen minutes. For all the non-bibliophiles reading this week’s EVA, Around the World in Eighty Days is a classic novel written by French author Jules Verne. While the book is fictional, it has inspired several real-life adventurers to follow in protagonist Phileas Fogg’s footsteps and circumnavigate the world in 80 (or less) days. Read More
In this exclusive Quarterly Webinar, David Hay reviews what happened in the market last quarter and provides insight into his investment themes for the current quarter. You don't want to miss this! For access to this exclusive 40-minute webinar with David Hay, we are charging $9.99. Note: Clients receive all content for free. A link and password to view this webinar should have been sent to you via email. If you are a client and did not receive a link and password to this webinar, please email mjohnston@evergreengavekal.com. Read More
Recent populist-driven election results underscore the truth that a race cannot be called until every vote is tallied. Remember the final polls leading up to November 8th? The New York Times predicted, with 84% certainty, that Hillary Clinton would be the next President of the United States. In fact, consensus polls didn’t have Trump within 1.5 percentage points of Clinton between June 2016 and election day. Read More
Buy-and-hold, the path to gold? Nearly 25 years ago, Jeremy Siegel’s book, “Stocks for the Long Run,” hit the market. It was an instant bestseller, at least by financial book standards. His timing was propitious, since it came out in the middle of the biggest bull market in history. Read More
The Great Inflation Debate, Take Two. In our February 17th Chartbook EVA, we entered into the always hotly contentious realm of attempting to determine the true level of inflation and, closely related to that, its trend. It goes without saying—but I will anyway—that there are few areas where the words “Believe those who are seeking the truth; doubt those who say they have found it” are more applicable. Read More
The sampler. This week’s edition of the Evergreen Virtual Advisor is a trilogy of recent short articles by three of my favorite thinkers at our partner firm Gavekal. The first is a timely essay by Tan Kai Xian (fortunately he is kind enough to let us refer to him as KX!). As you will soon read, he reflects on last week’s embarrassing flame-out of Obamacare reform and discusses the potential implications for tax reform. Read More
