In the financial newsletter industry, John Mauldin is like LeBron James. No one stands taller or is more popular than John with his million-plus circulation of Thoughts from the Frontline. Candidly, John’s work inspired me to start writing the Evergreen Virtual Adviser back in 2006 (so now you know who to blame!). Read More
In March, Evergreen outlined our near- and long-term concern for an escalating trade war in The Trump Trade Tirade. Well, ladies and gentlemen, it seems as if the worst has come is coming to fruition. Read More
First, please accept my apologies that this EVA issue, based on my in-progress book titled “Bubble 3.0”, is out of sequence. My intent was to run it as a later chapter in the actual book, but I was concerned that if I didn’t run it soon as part of our newsletter, I might miss my chance to create this on a before-the-fact basis. If you are wondering what that “fact” might be, it relates to my suspicion that we might in the final act of what I have formerly referred to as “The Great Levitation”. Read More
Over the last year, it has been a challenging environment for bond investors as interest rates continue to grind higher. Inflation readings registering multi-year highs are certainly one factor causing higher borrowing costs. However, perhaps the biggest influence on higher rates is the shifting supply and demand dynamic from fiscal and monetary policy changes. On the fiscal side, the tax overhaul, along with increased military and domestic spending, is expected to significantly widen our budget deficit, which means a surge in treasury borrowing. Read More
Regular EVA readers are no strangers to Danielle DiMartino Booth, former senior adviser to Dallas Fed President Dick Fisher before and after the housing bust. Even sporadic viewers of CNBC are likely to have seen her repeatedly interviewed on nearly all things Fed-related. Read More
Given the spectacle that played out in Singapore at the beginning of this week, it’s easy to forget the state of uncertainty that markets and individuals lived in at times last summer when Kim Jong-un and President Trump traded nuclear war intimidations. Read More
The ongoing EVA series with excerpts from my upcoming book (tentatively titled “Bubble 3.0, How Central Banks Created the Next Financial Crisis”) is getting a lot of attention from clients and readers. Depending on which camp people sit in – see-no-trouble bull or too-lightly-invested bear – the responses either strike a dispiriting or encouraging tone. Read More
At the end of 2017, we initiated a new EVA series titled “Bubble Watch” where we went as far as to postulate that we’re in the midst of the Biggest Bubble Ever (BBE). Read More
Sometimes our newsletter has been accused of writing too technically about financial markets. Truth be told, it’s a constant juggling act to write something that caters to casual market observers as well as to those who pore over the meeting minutes every time the FOMC convenes. Read More
Generally speaking, the purpose of EVA is to communicate Evergreen’s overall outlook on the markets and economy. We tend to stick to this script by writing on topics such as central bank policy, inflation, the stock market, the bond market, and energy. One theme we try to avoid – or at least stay neutral on – is politics. Read More
