General

Evergreen Gavekal's Likes/Dislikes for July 5, 2019. Read More

As is often the case in the current news environment, the endless headlines surrounding the relations between the United States and China overshadow the substance of underlying policy and provide little added value to the public. While this may make for good political theatre, it leaves many struggling to grasp what has been developing not just over the past year, but quietly for the past decade. In this week's EVA, Evergreen Gavekal partner Louis Gave offers thought-provoking insights on the complex “trade war” being staged by the two countries. Louis—and the venerable Charles Gave, with his 50 years of investment experience—argue there are far bigger implications for the ongoing battle than just the balance of imports and exports. The following examines the events that have led us to this point, as well as the options that may be exhausted going forward. Read More

Evergreen Gavekal's Likes/Dislikes for June 28, 2019. Read More

In just six months, the Fed went from hiking interest rates to, as of last week, opening the doors for future interest rate cuts. This makes the hike last December look a bit silly given the stock market was in freefall, economic data was deteriorating, and trade tensions were escalating. To make matters worse, President Trump tweeted it is “incredible” that the Fed “is even considering another interest rate hike” before the Fed raised last December. Since then, the Twitter handle @realDonaldTrump has been exceedingly critical with regards to Fed policy and tightening too aggressively. It’s worth noting that almost every other president in history has steered clear of publicly criticizing the Fed, which makes this situation even more precarious and unprecedented. Read More

Inflation is a fickle measure influenced by several economic variables. Over the last 100 years, the rate of price inflation in the United States has swung wildly, from upwards of 20% in the early 1920, to -17% a few years following, to a steadier rate in the low single-digits over the last 35 years. Read More

Evergreen Gavekal's Likes/Dislikes for June 21, 2019. Read More

Evergreen Gavekal's Likes/Dislikes for June 14, 2019. Read More

Being old—like north of 60—doesn’t come with many advantages. However, in the investment game it does have at least one: being “mature” enough to remember past financial and business cycles. Read More

Invincible. Infallible. Unshakeable. When the tech heavyweights stepped up to fight nearly ten years ago, they were substantially leaner in almost every measurable category. Market caps were deflated following a bloody bear bath; earnings were paltry and, in many cases, non-existent; and influence on Main Street, Wall Street and Capitol Hill were meaningful but not, by any means, overwhelming. Read More

Evergreen Gavekal's Likes/Dislikes for June 7, 2019. Read More