China's GDP forecasts for 2016 have been consistently cut
At the same time, the Shanghai composite is up over 80%. Read More
China's GDP forecasts for 2016 have been consistently cut
At the same time, the Shanghai composite is up over 80%. Read More
Futures are bright
With MLPs yielding over 6%, and distributions growing 3-5% per year, we think future returns are bright. Read More
March 20, 2015
By David Hay Don’t ask, don’t tell. Lately, I’ve begun to pose an uncomfortable question to both my investment professional friends (I still have a few) and to a handful of clients: What happens when the stock market quits going up? For now, let’s ignore the more unsettling notion of the impact of a deep correction and just focus on an extended sideways scenario. That wouldn’t be so bad, right? Unfortunately, for millions of Americans—and countless retirement plans—the reality is quite the opposite. The dividend yield on the S&P 500 is currently around 2%. Ergo, if prices plateau, that will be the sum total of the return investors will receive. As frequently relayed in this newsletter, many experts with the best long-term forecasting records are predicting precisely this scenario for years to come, though they also suspect it will be a far more volatile future than my assumed extended flat-lining. Read More
Guest EVA
By David Hay Don’t ask, don’t tell. Lately, I’ve begun to pose an uncomfortable question to both my investment professional friends (I still have a few) and to a handful of clients: What happens when the stock market quits going up? For now, let’s ignore the more unsettling notion of the impact of a deep correction and just focus on an extended sideways scenario. That wouldn’t be so bad, right? Unfortunately, for millions of Americans—and countless retirement plans—the reality is quite the opposite. The dividend yield on the S&P 500 is currently around 2%. Ergo, if prices plateau, that will be the sum total of the return investors will receive. As frequently relayed in this newsletter, many experts with the best long-term forecasting records are predicting precisely this scenario for years to come, though they also suspect it will be a far more volatile future than my assumed extended flat-lining. Read More
Forward P/Es are well above average
Forward P/Es are well above average and would be even more elevated without an unrealistic 20% assumed increase in Q4… Read More