To subscribe to Insights, email jliu@evergreengavekal.com; Note: all returns represent total return including dividends; YTD Market Style Returns are based on the Russell indices. Please see important disclosure below: DISCLOSURES: This material has been prepared or is distributed solely for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation or… Read More

With 10Y JGBs yielding just 0.30% it’s not surprising Japan surpassed China as largest foreign holder of USTs. Read More

We can't help it. Charles Gave inspires us so routinely that his musings are, once again, the highlight of this month’s Guest EVA. I had an immediate and visceral reaction to his April 10th published essay How Indexation Killed Growth. As you’ll see, he calls index investing stupid and compares it to Socialism—and that’s just the first paragraph! What bothers Charles also concerns me and my Evergreen colleagues. Passive investors have a high probability of achieving average performance and little risk of falling short. Read More

We can't help it. Charles Gave inspires us so routinely that his musings are, once again, the highlight of this month’s Guest EVA. I had an immediate and visceral reaction to his April 10th published essay How Indexation Killed Growth. As you’ll see, he calls index investing stupid and compares it to Socialism—and that’s just the first paragraph! What bothers Charles also concerns me and my Evergreen colleagues. Passive investors have a high probability of achieving average performance and little risk of falling short. Read More

Falling Fed deficits have neutered any serious efforts for fiscal reform. The trend is not our friend in this regard. Read More

“Similarly today, it is both painful and career risky to part with your increasingly beloved cash, particularly since cash has been so hard to raise in this market of unprecedented illiquidity. As this crisis climaxes, formerly reasonable people will start to predict the end of the world, armed with plenty… Read More

EM stocks have underperformed the S&P by 80% since 2011. Year-to-date this trend has begun to reverse course. Read More

The Yuan is up 13% over the last year, which is clearly affecting exports. This likely means more rate cuts ahead. Read More

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Two nays and a yea. There’s little doubt that the two most important developments in the financial markets over the last six months have been the stunning rise in the US dollar and the equally shocking collapse by oil prices. In this month’s edition of the Evergreen Exchange, we are taking a closer look at the former and debating whether the buck’s bolt might be coming to an end. We’re treating readers by incorporating GaveKal’s co-founder Anatole Kaletsky, one of Europe’s most influential financial commentators, in this debate. As you will soon see, Anatole is very much of the belief that the dollar’s sprint is nearing the finish line, at least versus the euro. In my section, I argue the case for why it may also be petering out against a number of other currencies as well, based on how expensive it is on a purchasing power parity basis. However, I do concede that a further overshoot is possible. Tyler, on the other hand, contends that there’s more upside for the greenback than just a final blow-off. That’s certainly a distinct possibility, considering how expensive the dollar got during its two previous upside explosions during the mid-1980s and the late-1990s. (However, notice that, per my charts, the bigger the spike, the sharper the decline—a pattern eerily similar to the stock market’s past behavior.) Read More