This 3-D Map Shows the Cities Where Most Economic Activity Happens in the USA
The guys at HowMuch.net just built this incredible visual based on data recently released from on the Bureau of Economic Analysis. It shows where economic activity currently happens – and where it doesn't – across the United States. Read More
CORPORATE BONDS TELL A SCARY STORY FOR THE STOCK MARKET
Click here to view as PDF. “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” - Renowned MIT Economics Professor Rudi Dornbusch EVA SUMMARY In the spirit of Halloween, this month’s Guest EVA features a spooky Poltergeist-themed article from former Fed insider, Danielle DiMartino Booth. In her letter, Danielle warns that signs of stress are starting to show in the $200-plus trillion corporate bond market and the conditions are now in place for the next corporate default cycle (which is clearly underway in the energy and mining sectors). If she’s right, the damage we are already seeing in both investment grade and high yield spreads* tells a scary story for the richly-valued S&P 500, which continues to rally in the face of rising risks already reflected in the credit markets. To be clear, my colleagues and I at Evergreen GaveKal are not suggesting that investors should avoid all high yield bonds. Rather, we believe investors should be selective and focus on higher-grade, high yield securities (BBs instead of CCCs) at this point in the credit cycle. While spreads may continue to widen in less beaten-up sectors, we believe stocks have much further to fall than corporate bonds. Given the defensive posture our investment committee has taken over the last year – with relatively low allocations to equities and junkier-rated bonds and the highest cash reserves in our firm’s history – we believe we are well prepared to weather whatever storms may come. Read More
Flash Crash 2.0
Click here to download the PDF. This week’s EVA Chartbook by Jeff Dicks explores recent market volatility in the context of the 2010 “Flash Crash” and explains why structural changes in the years since 2008 have left our financial markets more vulnerable to sudden stops and sharp dislocations. We… Read More
IFF Suggests the EM Outlook is Still Deteriorating
Here are a couple of charts courtesy of the International Institute of Finance’s Twitter feed (@IFF). Despite all the pain we’ve seen since 2011, the outlook for emerging markets is still deteriorating as capital outflows continue. Read More
Every Investor's Main Goal
Every investor’s main goal should be fully funding their retirement, not keeping pace with the market at all times. Not only do emotional mistakes often lead to disappointing long-term returns, but also substantial short-term losses, which is why sticking to a disciplined and diversified investment approach throughout your working years is… Read More